Decline of HRW (Gulf)* wheat continued its steady decline and closed on
Friday May 30 at US$ 317/t.
France Grade 1 (Rouen)** declined slightly early in the week and then remained almost constant around US$ 265/t.
The longest run of declines since September 1998 continue as traders factor in the prospect of cooler, wetter weather in coming months that will help crops
across whole north hemisphere.
Weak demand for U.S. soft red winter wheat and ample global supplies have pressured the front Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures contract to a point where the exchange might need to raise storage rates for the first time in three years.
According to the International Grains Council, world wheat production will be smaller than estimated last month as dry weather erodes prospects for the harvest in the U.S. Global wheat output will be 694 million metric tons in the 2014-15 season, less than an April forecast of 697 million tons and 2.1 percent smaller than the previous year. Production in the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter, will be 55 million tons, compared with a previous forecast of 59 million tons.
- is finished in Indo-Gangetic plains - India, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh.
- is finished also in north-west Mexico (Sonora).
- going on in North Africa and Near East where spring wheat is grown during the winter.
- winter wheat harvest started in Iran.
- started in some provinces of China (Jiangsu, Guizhou, Sichuan).
Wheat crop is in full growth in temperate zone of northern hemisphere - US, Europe, Russia and China.
Wheat planting is almost done in central Mexico, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
Wheat planting is starting in Australia and Southern America - Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay.
Egypt: A wheat harvesting and rural tourism festival designed to increase the production of wheat and rural products in general is now under way in Alexandria. Morocco’s government has lowered its cereal production estimate and we estimate Moroccan wheat production at 5m tonnes (including 1.3m tonnes of durum), 700,000t less than previously. India
: Despite weather vagaries and aggressive buying of wheat by private traders this season, procurement by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) has touched 26.67 million tonnes (as on Friday May 24), as compared to 25.42 mt during the same period last year.
- Procurement ended in Punjab and Haryana on Saturday May 24 and both states have achieved their estimated targets of 11 million t and 6.5 million t, respectively.
- Madhya Pradesh was expected to procure 8 million t as compared to 6.5 million t last year; FCI sources say it might be 7 million t, the figure being 6.8 million t till Friday May 23.
- Uttar Pradesh was expected to contribute 3 million t to the central pool but has procured only 0.3 million t.
Pakistan: The Pakistan Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation (Passco), a state-run grain buying agency, is falling short of the purchase target of 1.6 million tons of wheat in three provinces – Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan – this season, officials say. On the other side Sindh Food Department (SFD) procured 30 %more wheat compared to last year, ahead of the cutout date which is June 15.
US/California: Researchers at UC Davis are working to stem a decline in California wheat production by developing varieties that are more drought tolerant, resistant to diseases and more nutritious. US:Kansas: The Kansas wheat harvest is expected to start in about 10 days, and most farmers expect a fairly miserable crop. In its May 1 forecast, the USDA forecast 260 million bushels, the smallest harvest since 1996, with an average yield of 31 bushels per acres. Since then, the sun has beamed down, winds have blown hard, temperatures have been in the 90 a few times – and not enough rain has fallen, particularly in western Kansas, to make up any deficits. US/Ohio: The wheat crop is going to be harvested later than normal in almost all areas of Ohio this year due to the cooler than normal spring temperatures. This leaves farmers with some tough choices once the wheat acres are harvested. US/Oklahoma: Recent rains are expected to have little impact on the local wheat and canola harvest. Rainfall totals in southwest Oklahoma are more than 3 inches below normal. US/Texas: Wheat harvest began in drought-hit central Texas this past week and, as expected, the yields are low and the protein is high. Mexico/Sonora: With only about week till the end of 2014 harvest, the average yield seems to be lower than expected - 5.54 t/ha. According to Sagarpa official the main reasons of lower yield are warm weather during grain filling and lodging after strong winds that occurred towards the end of March.
Argentina: Due to very high soil moisture in several key wheat regions, the start of wheat planting has been delayed for a week or so, but have finally started. Bolivia: Heavy rains in the growing areas of Santa Cruz have delayed the wheat planting. Fifty percent of Bolivia's foreseen 120,000 ha of wheat were supposed to be planted by Friday May 30, however the planting has hardly started.
Australia: Australia will finish sowing at the end of June. Various weather models predict a 50% chance of an El Niño effect from then, which would increase the probability of a dry spring, adding to production concerns.
Russia & Ukraine: Crops in Ukraine and Russia are good, but conditions dry. Both are major exporters and if the situation in Ukraine deteriorates internal transportation, loading in the ports and/or navigation on the Black Sea may be affected, providing short-term support for the market. *(US Wheat, Hard Red Winter, Fob US Gulf ports)**(EU - France Grade 1 Rouen)
In Denmark and Sweden 100,000ha more has been planted, which will increase production by 900,000t and 600,000t respectively, while in Spain, which had 150% of normal precipitation in March, production is up by 200,000t to 6.1m tonnes. Dry weather in France and Germany is a risk, but wheat is in good condition.